Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.8%
Ath Madrid
25.0%
Draw
14.3%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Ath Madrid
vs
0.64
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS38.0%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.566.0%
Over 2.539.1%
Over 3.519.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.7%
2-0
13.7%
1-1
11.1%
0-0
10.8%
2-1
8.7%
3-0
7.4%
0-1
6.5%
3-1
4.7%
1-2
3.5%
4-0
3.0%
2-2
2.8%
0-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).