Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.6%
Santander
25.6%
Draw
23.8%
Burgos
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Santander
vs
0.96
Burgos
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.570.7%
Over 2.545.1%
Over 3.523.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.9%
1-1
12.1%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.3%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).