Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.6%
Maritimo
22.9%
Draw
34.5%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Maritimo
vs
1.44
Arouca
Markets
BTTS61.0%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.580.7%
Over 2.559.4%
Over 3.537.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.4%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.0%
1-2
7.9%
0-1
7.1%
2-2
6.4%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.8%
0-0
4.1%
1-3
3.8%
3-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).