Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.1%
Bury
20.6%
Draw
9.4%
Welling United
Expected Goals (xG)
1.80
Bury
vs
0.48
Welling United
Markets
BTTS31.4%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.566.2%
Over 2.539.9%
Over 3.519.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.7%
2-0
16.6%
3-0
10.0%
0-0
10.0%
1-1
8.5%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
5.2%
3-1
4.8%
4-0
4.5%
4-1
2.1%
1-2
2.1%
2-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).