Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →9.5%
Arouca
16.1%
Draw
74.4%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.87
Arouca
vs
2.63
Benfica
Markets
BTTS54.3%
Over 0.596.4%
Over 1.586.9%
Over 2.567.8%
Over 3.546.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
10.5%
0-3
9.2%
1-2
9.1%
1-3
8.0%
1-1
7.5%
0-1
7.4%
0-4
6.0%
1-4
5.2%
2-2
3.9%
0-0
3.6%
2-3
3.5%
0-5
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).