Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.2%
Stevenage
27.4%
Draw
21.4%
Cheltenham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Stevenage
vs
0.69
Cheltenham
Markets
BTTS34.9%
Over 0.587.0%
Over 1.557.4%
Over 2.531.3%
Over 3.513.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.9%
0-0
13.0%
1-1
11.3%
2-0
11.3%
0-1
10.8%
2-1
7.8%
3-0
4.8%
1-2
4.3%
0-2
3.4%
3-1
3.3%
2-2
2.7%
4-0
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).