Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.1%
Notts County
30.1%
Draw
32.8%
Northampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02
Notts County
vs
0.94
Northampton
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.586.4%
Over 1.557.8%
Over 2.531.2%
Over 3.513.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.9%
0-1
13.8%
0-0
13.6%
1-1
13.0%
2-0
7.3%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
3.2%
3-0
2.5%
3-1
2.3%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).