Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →89.4%
Sp Lisbon
7.5%
Draw
3.1%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
3.29
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.50
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS37.6%
Over 0.597.9%
Over 1.589.0%
Over 2.572.8%
Over 3.552.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
13.5%
2-0
12.3%
4-0
11.1%
1-0
7.6%
5-0
7.3%
3-1
6.7%
2-1
6.1%
4-1
5.5%
5-1
3.6%
1-1
3.6%
0-0
2.1%
3-2
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).