Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →84.6%
Benfica
10.5%
Draw
4.9%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.87
Benfica
vs
0.56
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS40.1%
Over 0.597.0%
Over 1.585.4%
Over 2.566.6%
Over 3.544.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.4%
3-0
12.8%
1-0
9.5%
4-0
9.2%
2-1
7.5%
3-1
7.1%
5-0
5.3%
4-1
5.1%
1-1
5.0%
0-0
3.0%
5-1
2.9%
2-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).