Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →79.5%
Benfica
14.5%
Draw
6.0%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
2.59
Benfica
vs
0.61
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS42.5%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.583.3%
Over 2.561.9%
Over 3.539.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.7%
3-0
11.9%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
8.3%
4-0
7.7%
3-1
7.2%
1-1
6.9%
4-1
4.6%
0-0
4.6%
5-0
4.0%
2-2
2.5%
5-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).