Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.3%
Chesterfield
22.9%
Draw
36.7%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Chesterfield
vs
1.50
Swindon
Markets
BTTS61.3%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.580.8%
Over 2.559.5%
Over 3.537.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.7%
0-1
7.3%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
5.7%
0-2
5.2%
3-1
4.5%
0-0
4.1%
1-3
4.1%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).