Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.0%
Swansea
29.7%
Draw
29.3%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Swansea
vs
1.05
Watford
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.589.4%
Over 1.568.8%
Over 2.541.5%
Over 3.520.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
11.4%
0-0
10.6%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.3%
2-2
4.4%
3-1
3.6%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).