Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.3%
Villarreal
22.0%
Draw
48.7%
Barcelona
Expected Goals (xG)
1.55
Villarreal
vs
2.03
Barcelona
Markets
BTTS68.8%
Over 0.596.9%
Over 1.587.6%
Over 2.569.4%
Over 3.548.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.1%
1-2
8.9%
2-2
6.9%
2-1
6.8%
1-3
6.0%
0-2
5.7%
0-1
5.3%
2-3
4.7%
1-0
4.0%
0-3
3.9%
3-2
3.6%
3-1
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).