Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.6%
Stevenage
29.7%
Draw
45.7%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.71
Stevenage
vs
1.10
Derby
Markets
BTTS32.9%
Over 0.584.8%
Over 1.553.1%
Over 2.527.3%
Over 3.511.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
19.0%
0-0
15.2%
1-0
12.7%
1-1
11.7%
0-2
9.9%
1-2
7.0%
2-1
4.5%
2-0
4.1%
0-3
3.6%
1-3
2.6%
2-2
2.5%
3-1
1.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).