Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.5%
Derby
27.1%
Draw
22.4%
Preston
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Derby
vs
0.98
Preston
Markets
BTTS50.8%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.1%
3-1
5.0%
2-2
4.7%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).