Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.7%
Blackpool
24.3%
Draw
51.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.93
Blackpool
vs
1.48
Derby
Markets
BTTS45.5%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.568.2%
Over 2.543.1%
Over 3.522.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.4%
1-1
11.3%
0-2
9.9%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.0%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
4.9%
1-3
4.5%
2-2
4.2%
2-0
3.9%
2-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).