Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.6%
Carlisle
26.8%
Draw
39.6%
Gillingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11
Carlisle
vs
1.24
Gillingham
Markets
BTTS47.1%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.567.5%
Over 2.541.7%
Over 3.521.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.6%
0-1
12.4%
1-0
11.2%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
4.5%
1-3
3.3%
0-3
3.0%
3-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).