Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →79.1%
Sp Braga
14.8%
Draw
6.1%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.55
Sp Braga
vs
0.60
Alverca
Markets
BTTS42.1%
Over 0.595.2%
Over 1.582.8%
Over 2.561.0%
Over 3.538.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.9%
3-0
11.9%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
8.4%
4-0
7.6%
3-1
7.1%
1-1
7.0%
0-0
4.8%
4-1
4.5%
5-0
3.9%
2-2
2.5%
5-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).