Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.7%
Estrela
25.6%
Draw
37.7%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Estrela
vs
1.55
Arouca
Markets
BTTS62.6%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.582.1%
Over 2.559.5%
Over 3.537.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
0-2
5.5%
0-0
5.4%
2-0
5.4%
1-3
4.4%
3-1
4.3%
2-3
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).