Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →96.9%
Crystal Palace
2.6%
Draw
0.5%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
4.17
Crystal Palace
vs
0.23
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS19.9%
Over 0.598.8%
Over 1.593.3%
Over 2.581.4%
Over 3.563.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
4-0
15.6%
3-0
14.9%
5-0
13.0%
2-0
10.7%
1-0
5.2%
4-1
3.5%
3-1
3.4%
5-1
2.9%
2-1
2.4%
0-0
1.2%
1-1
1.1%
4-2
0.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).