Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.1%
Southampton
17.4%
Draw
74.5%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
0.75
Southampton
vs
2.50
Man United
Markets
BTTS49.4%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.584.5%
Over 2.563.0%
Over 3.540.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
12.1%
0-3
10.1%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
8.7%
1-1
8.3%
1-3
7.6%
0-4
6.3%
0-0
4.9%
1-4
4.7%
2-2
3.4%
0-5
3.2%
2-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).