Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.2%
Brighton
16.0%
Draw
5.8%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.51
Brighton
vs
0.59
Southampton
Markets
BTTS42.0%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.582.5%
Over 2.559.9%
Over 3.537.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.2%
3-0
11.8%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
8.4%
1-1
7.6%
4-0
7.4%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
5.4%
4-1
4.4%
5-0
3.7%
2-2
2.5%
5-1
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).