Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →15.9%
Arouca
18.9%
Draw
65.1%
Sp Braga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Arouca
vs
2.44
Sp Braga
Markets
BTTS63.0%
Over 0.596.8%
Over 1.587.9%
Over 2.569.7%
Over 3.548.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.4%
1-1
8.2%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
7.7%
0-3
6.6%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.5%
1-4
4.7%
2-1
4.5%
2-3
4.4%
0-4
4.1%
0-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).