Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.0%
Castellon
18.9%
Draw
11.1%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
2.08
Castellon
vs
0.68
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS43.1%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.576.0%
Over 2.552.0%
Over 3.529.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.7%
1-0
13.3%
3-0
9.5%
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.9%
3-1
6.4%
0-0
6.3%
4-0
4.9%
0-1
4.4%
4-1
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
1-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).