Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.7%
Stevenage
23.2%
Draw
15.1%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Stevenage
vs
0.66
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.590.5%
Over 1.566.5%
Over 2.540.4%
Over 3.520.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.9%
2-0
13.5%
1-1
10.4%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
8.9%
3-0
7.4%
0-1
7.1%
3-1
4.9%
1-2
3.6%
4-0
3.0%
2-2
2.9%
0-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).