Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.7%
Cardiff
18.3%
Draw
16.1%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.11
Cardiff
vs
0.91
Luton
Markets
BTTS51.9%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.579.7%
Over 2.558.2%
Over 3.535.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.0%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
8.6%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
7.0%
0-1
5.2%
2-2
4.5%
1-2
4.3%
0-0
4.1%
4-0
4.0%
4-1
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).