Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.7%
Rio Ave
27.5%
Draw
26.8%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Rio Ave
vs
0.90
Tondela
Markets
BTTS42.1%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.563.2%
Over 2.536.9%
Over 3.517.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.1%
1-1
12.5%
0-0
10.8%
0-1
10.8%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.9%
2-2
3.7%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).