Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.6%
Moreirense
23.2%
Draw
21.2%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.68
Moreirense
vs
0.93
Alverca
Markets
BTTS48.6%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.572.8%
Over 2.548.2%
Over 3.526.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.9%
1-1
11.0%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.6%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
6.9%
3-0
5.8%
3-1
5.4%
1-2
5.3%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
3.2%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).