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AHT: 01CSV

21 Jan 2025 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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46.5%
Watford
28.5%
Draw
24.9%
Preston

Expected Goals (xG)

1.43

Watford

vs
0.98

Preston

Markets

BTTS48.5%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.570.4%
Over 2.543.4%
Over 3.522.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
4.3%
3-1
4.3%
3-2
2.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).