Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.0%
Swindon
18.7%
Draw
16.3%
Cheltenham
Expected Goals (xG)
2.19
Swindon
vs
0.99
Cheltenham
Markets
BTTS55.6%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.582.4%
Over 2.561.8%
Over 3.539.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.4%
1-1
8.6%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
7.2%
2-2
4.9%
1-2
4.5%
0-1
4.5%
4-0
4.0%
4-1
4.0%
0-0
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).