Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.0%
Alaves
30.4%
Draw
19.6%
Numancia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Alaves
vs
0.63
Numancia
Markets
BTTS32.6%
Over 0.584.1%
Over 1.554.5%
Over 2.527.8%
Over 3.511.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.3%
0-0
15.9%
1-1
12.0%
2-0
11.5%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
7.3%
3-0
4.6%
1-2
3.8%
0-2
3.2%
3-1
2.9%
2-2
2.3%
4-0
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).