Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.4%
Casa Pia
25.6%
Draw
36.0%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Casa Pia
vs
1.25
Nacional
Markets
BTTS51.2%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.571.5%
Over 2.546.7%
Over 3.525.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
1-0
10.8%
0-1
10.4%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.9%
0-0
7.3%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
3.3%
3-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).