Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →9.7%
Nacional
17.3%
Draw
73.0%
Sp Lisbon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.61
Nacional
vs
2.13
Sp Lisbon
Markets
BTTS39.8%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.575.4%
Over 2.551.5%
Over 3.529.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
14.7%
0-1
14.1%
0-3
10.4%
1-2
8.9%
1-1
8.0%
1-3
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
0-4
5.5%
1-0
4.3%
1-4
3.4%
2-2
2.7%
2-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).