Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.7%
Ascoli
33.0%
Draw
26.3%
Perugia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Ascoli
vs
0.87
Perugia
Markets
BTTS40.8%
Over 0.585.3%
Over 1.561.0%
Over 2.532.6%
Over 3.514.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
14.7%
1-1
14.6%
1-0
14.0%
0-1
10.3%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
5.0%
3-0
3.3%
2-2
3.3%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).