Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.8%
Carlisle
24.1%
Draw
27.1%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Carlisle
vs
1.11
Newport County
Markets
BTTS52.8%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.574.6%
Over 2.550.5%
Over 3.528.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
6.6%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
5.0%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).