Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.3%
Chaves
27.8%
Draw
30.0%
Pacos Ferreira
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Chaves
vs
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
Markets
BTTS43.2%
Over 0.589.4%
Over 1.563.7%
Over 2.537.4%
Over 3.517.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.2%
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.5%
0-0
10.6%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
5.3%
2-2
3.9%
3-0
3.4%
3-1
3.3%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).