Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →74.6%
Dortmund
17.9%
Draw
7.5%
St Pauli
Expected Goals (xG)
2.21
Dortmund
vs
0.57
St Pauli
Markets
BTTS39.0%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.576.9%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.530.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.2%
1-0
13.3%
3-0
11.2%
2-1
8.6%
1-1
8.3%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
6.3%
4-0
6.2%
4-1
3.5%
0-1
3.0%
5-0
2.7%
2-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).