Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.8%
Swindon
18.7%
Draw
14.6%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
2.13
Swindon
vs
0.87
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS50.6%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.579.6%
Over 2.557.5%
Over 3.535.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.3%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
8.8%
3-0
8.0%
3-1
7.0%
0-1
4.7%
0-0
4.6%
4-0
4.3%
2-2
4.3%
1-2
4.0%
4-1
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).