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14 Feb 2026 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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76.9%
Southend
15.4%
Draw
7.6%
Morecambe

Expected Goals (xG)

2.61

Southend

vs
0.74

Morecambe

Markets

BTTS48.9%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.585.3%
Over 2.565.0%
Over 3.543.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
12.0%
3-0
10.4%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
7.3%
4-0
6.8%
4-1
5.0%
0-0
4.1%
5-0
3.6%
2-2
3.3%
3-2
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).