Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.4%
Parma
23.7%
Draw
13.9%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.88
Parma
vs
0.78
Spal
Markets
BTTS47.0%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.575.5%
Over 2.549.7%
Over 3.527.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.4%
1-0
12.1%
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.0%
3-0
7.8%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.8%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).