Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.0%
Oxford
12.9%
Draw
9.1%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
2.70
Oxford
vs
0.80
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS50.7%
Over 0.597.5%
Over 1.585.8%
Over 2.567.8%
Over 3.546.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.1%
3-0
9.9%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.7%
3-1
7.9%
4-0
6.7%
1-1
6.0%
4-1
5.3%
5-0
3.6%
2-2
3.5%
3-2
3.2%
0-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).