Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.9%
Tondela
28.5%
Draw
37.6%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Tondela
vs
1.32
Arouca
Markets
BTTS53.2%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.573.6%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.2%
0-0
8.6%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
5.2%
1-3
3.7%
3-1
3.3%
0-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).