Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.2%
AFC Wimbledon
24.0%
Draw
29.8%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
AFC Wimbledon
vs
1.11
Burton
Markets
BTTS50.5%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.2%
1-1
11.4%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.9%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.4%
3-0
4.0%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).