Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.6%
Casa Pia
26.5%
Draw
23.9%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.60
Casa Pia
vs
1.04
Estrela
Markets
BTTS52.3%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.574.7%
Over 2.549.1%
Over 3.527.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.6%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
7.9%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
4.9%
3-0
4.9%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).