Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →14.1%
Lugo
21.2%
Draw
64.7%
Santander
Expected Goals (xG)
0.74
Lugo
vs
1.89
Santander
Markets
BTTS44.4%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.549.0%
Over 3.527.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.7%
0-2
12.8%
1-1
10.0%
1-2
9.5%
0-3
8.1%
0-0
7.1%
1-3
6.0%
1-0
5.4%
0-4
3.8%
2-1
3.7%
2-2
3.5%
1-4
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).