Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.0%
Arsenal
27.3%
Draw
20.8%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.69
Arsenal
vs
1.00
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS53.3%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.576.7%
Over 2.550.6%
Over 3.528.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
3-0
5.5%
0-1
5.2%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
3.4%
3-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).