Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.1%
Southampton
24.3%
Draw
21.5%
Birmingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Southampton
vs
1.11
Birmingham
Markets
BTTS57.6%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.580.6%
Over 2.557.2%
Over 3.534.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.9%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.5%
2-2
5.5%
0-1
4.8%
3-2
3.4%
0-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).