Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.1%
Numancia
26.6%
Draw
25.3%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.42
Numancia
vs
0.95
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS46.4%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.568.4%
Over 2.542.3%
Over 3.521.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
9.4%
0-0
9.2%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.5%
2-2
4.3%
3-1
4.2%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).