Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.3%
Leeds
20.0%
Draw
12.7%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.24
Leeds
vs
0.89
Southampton
Markets
BTTS53.2%
Over 0.594.9%
Over 1.582.6%
Over 2.560.4%
Over 3.538.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
9.1%
3-0
8.2%
3-1
7.3%
0-0
5.1%
4-0
4.6%
2-2
4.3%
4-1
4.1%
1-2
3.9%
3-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).