Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.2%
Port Vale
24.9%
Draw
26.9%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Port Vale
vs
0.97
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS45.8%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.542.5%
Over 3.521.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.1%
1-1
11.6%
0-1
10.0%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-1
4.2%
3-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).